The Nasdaq 100 continues to make upside progress after breaking above an Ascending Triangle chart pattern. Now, the index is quickly approaching key resistance. This seems to be a combination of the June high (12961) and the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). If these hold, a pivot lower might be in the cards. 

NAS100 D1 07 22 2022 1441

Trade accordingly with your risk 





Silver prices traded below the 2020 low/2021 high range. Having broken through 18.7064, a more significant sell-off towards 16.000 may still be in the works. However, recent changes in sentiment suggest that silver prices have a mixed bias in the near-term.
Once again, silver prices established a fresh yearly low today, a continuation of the sell-off spurred following the symmetrical triangle bearish breakout in the second half of June. The grey metal barreled through 18.7064, a key level outlined at the end of June, suggesting that an even deeper setback is still unfolding.

XAGUSD D1 07 15 2022 1347

The fundamental side of the equation hasn’t changed. “The ongoing rise in US real yields – nominal US Treasury yields less US inflation expectations (as measured by breakevens and inflation swap forwards) – coupled with global recession concerns has curated a difficult environment for silver prices.” A weak fundamental narrative continues to underpin an equally weak technical outlook.
With a new 2022 low on the books, silver prices fulfilled an expectation outlined at the end of June: “a move towards the 2020 low/2021 high range at 18.7064.” The sell-off in silver prices is consistent with the symmetrical triangle bearish breakout a few weeks ago, given that the preceding direction was to the downside. Momentum retains its bearish hue. Silver prices are below their daily 21-EMA envelope, which is in bearish sequential order.  Slow Stochastics are holding in oversold territory. A ‘sell the rally’ perspective remains appropriate for the foreseeable future.

XAGUSD W1 07 15 2022 1348


Trade accordingly with your risk






EUR/JPY prints gains for the third session in a row and records new cycle highs near 144.30 on Tuesday. The bullish bias in the cross remains well and sound and the continuation of the recovery now targets the round level at 145.00 prior to the 2015 high at 145.32 (January 2). Further up is the 2014 top at 149.78 (December 8).

In the meantime, while above the 3-month support line around 138.40, the short-term outlook for the cross should remain bullish. This area appears reinforced by the proximity of the 55-day SMA. 

EURJPY D1 06 28 2022 1530


Trade accordingly with your risk 





The news in Europe this morning failed to inspire as PMI numbers were released. Although some members met expectations the vast majority show signs of a slowdown in overall economic activity.

The government is looking at applying a set of measures, including loans, taking an equity stake and also passing part of the surge in costs onto customers, said two people familiar with the talks.Chancellor Olaf Scholz has activated the second phase of the country's three-stage emergency gas plan, with the threat of rationing if the situation worsens.

The sectoral breakdown is not for the faint of heart with financials and industrials leading the way on this bloody Tuesday.  From a technical perspective, last week finally saw a weekly candle close below the key psychological 13000 level. 

GER30 W1 07 05 2022 1737

The daily candle yesterday retested the psychological level before declining. Early European trade saw this downward pressure persist as we continued to edge toward the year-to-date lows. With these lows now met we might see a bounce from this level before a retest and potentially a break and close below.





Gold has been languishing in a range of US$ 1,807 – 1879 for seven weeks as rising interest rates and inflation expectations weigh against the perceived safe-haven status of the yellow metal.

Most global central banks are lifting rates at the fastest pace in generations to combat wealth-bleeding inflation readings and rein in ultra-loose monetary policy.

A significant threat for central banks is when inflation expectations become entrenched, hence the race to take out the slack. The Fed have maintained their rhetoric around taking the inflation fight seriously. The rising risks of recession has seen nominal yields pause from their parabolic path and at the same time, market-priced inflation expectations have been lowered. This has seen real yields remain steady over the last week or so. A real yield is the nominal rate less the inflation rate for the same tenure.

A potential risk for the gold price is the possibility of real yields resuming their upward trajectory. This could occur if inflation expectations go lower or if nominal yields go higher. A higher nominal yield might see a higher US Dollar, something that has potential to undermine gold.
In March, the gold price rallied to a peak of 2,070.42 but fell short of the all-time high of 2,075.14 seen in July 2020 creating a Double Top. In the bigger picture, this failure to break higher could be a bearish signal. 

XAUUSD D1 06 27 2022 1455

Since that March high, gold has been in a descending trend channel. More recently, it has been in range trading mode since early May. Just above the price is the 21- and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMA). A clean break above them might see bullish momentum emerge. Resistance could be at the recent high of 1,879 or just below there at the 55-day SMA and a descending trend line. Support may lie at the recent lows of 1,807, 1,805 or 1,787.




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